Considering history, and eyeballing the trends, one should reasonably conclude we recently peaked on the upswing, and now we will trend down in temperature for a few decades. While I think it is Pollyanna to suppose a full glacial advance isn’t coming, there is no telling when. I’ve thought for years that the next full glaciation will start soon, but soon here means decades to centuries. We just don’t know enough to predict. Regardless, the fact is that the world will be a much worse place if it cools as much as some of the experts suggest. Certainly, these folks are in the minority, but simply looking at the data shows that cooling is likely. A little cooling will hurt, a little more will be bad, as in millions, even billions of us suffering from starvation and other privations.

It seems to me that instead of billions spent on global warming abatement, we could sensibly prepare for significant alterations in climate and be much better prepared. We need to prepare for dealing with cooling that causes crop failures, and we need to be ready for more drought (a feature of cooling periods), and we need to be ready for more rain and warming too, since the kinds of things that make sense for disruptions work no matter what causes the disruption. Heck, that rock is out there. If it falls on us, such preparations will help deal with the havoc it causes.

Long term warming periods used to be called optimums. We need to admit and internalize the fact that cold kills; warmer is better.

Preparing for cooling makes sense. If it stays warm, we should stay appreciative of the fact.

UPDATE: Adding a comment from WUWT comment-section from the esteemed Professor Brown of Duke U.

  • Dearest Joachim,

    Sadly, your clock has a pendulum that is made up of many pieces of unequal length — a much, much more complex version of this:

    and is swinging through a jar of liquid at a speed that — in parts of its swing and for part of its cycle — passes the threshold for turbulence. Also, the spring that drives it isn’t a linear spring — it gets stronger and weaker as the clock ticks following a most irregular pattern. Finally, the swing is large enough that the ends of the pendulum can easily swing through one or more full rotations around the joints connecting the pieces.

    Consequently, the clock is a chaotic, nonlinear clock and you could be god and still unable to compute the solution to its intrinsic mechanism out into the indefinite future. How far out you can compute it and remain reasonably close is entirely dependent on chance, because you cannot even accurate measure the state of the clock and all of the components of the pendulum and have to approximate it as a rigid rod, which indeed sometimes it resembles for many cycles in a row.

    Until it doesn’t.

    During times of apparent order, it is easy to be lulled into thinking that you understand its mechanism and that it can be safely predicted into the future. And then — because it isn’t just a highly multivariate nonlinear oscillator, but is a strongly driven open system — it turns out that many of its “pendulum” pieces are self-organized phenomena and are not themselves permanent. There you are, understanding it (you think) and they suddenly rearrange themselves in length and mass and the entire clock starts to follow a completely different(but still chaotic) trajectory.


Watts Up With That?

HadCRUT_cooling from 2001

Eric Worrall writes:

Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.

According to Bob Carter;

Heading for ice age

“GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s capitulation to scientific criticism that it should publish an accounting of the corrections it makes to temperature records (“Bureau warms to transparency over adjusted records”, 12/9). Corrections which, furthermore, act to reinforce the bureau’s dedication to a prognosis of future dangerous global warming, by turning cooling temperature trends into warming ones — a practice also known to occur in the US, Britain and New Zealand.

Meanwhile, we have a report by Sue Neales that the size of our grain harvest remains in doubt following severe frosts in southern NSW killing large areas of early…

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