Down into the tedious weeds, but exceptionally good article showing that there is no value whatsoever in climate models.
Automotive crash models do the things Dr. Frank indicates. Automotive crash models compare to physical, real crashes. Over and over we compare the model results to real crashed cars. Over and over! We don’t stop comparing the models to reality. Aren’t you glad? Anybody willing to drive a car for which the design has never be actually crash tested, but only modeled? I hope not.
Note RGB’s comments below the article.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Pat Frank

For going on two years now, I’ve been trying to publish a manuscript that critically assesses the reliability of climate model projections. The manuscript has been submitted twice and rejected twice from two leading climate journals, for a total of four rejections. All on the advice of nine of ten reviewers. More on that below.

The analysis propagates climate model error through global air temperature projections, using a formalized version of the “passive warming model” (PWM) GCM emulator reported in my 2008 Skeptic article. Propagation of error through a GCM temperature projection reveals its predictive reliability.

Those interested can consult the invited poster (2.9 MB pdf) I presented at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco. Error propagation is a standard way to assess the reliability of an experimental result or a model prediction. However, climate models are never assessed this way.


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