Archives for the month of: February, 2016


If simulation models for engineers worked so poorly, there would be a lot of lawsuits and a lot of engineers in jail.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

This post presents model-data comparisons of ocean heat content. It is a correction and update (with 2015 values) of the modeled and observed trends in ocean heat accumulation that were presented in Chapter 1.24 – A Rough Calculation of the Amount of Missing Heat…A Critical Issue of my free ebook On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1 (25MB). In that chapter of the book, many of the model trends listed on the graphs were in error, with the trend values too low, bringing them closer to the observations. In other words, my errors favored the models. My apologies for the mistakes. Those errors have been corrected in this post and will be corrected in the ebook in its final release later this year.

# # #

Chapter 1.24 – A Rough Calculation of the Amount of Missing Heat…A Critical Issue

If…

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Money is not the problem. More money will not fix any of the problems.

Testing is part of the problem. More testing will cause more harm.

Accountability is not part of the problem. More accountability will not help.

Politics is part of the problem. More politics, especially more heated partisan rhetoric, will only make it worse and burn us all in the process.

Coercion is evil.

End compulsory education. Then, we can start to fix the things that are the cause of the problem. Nothing that matters can be fixed while we coerce our young citizens and incarcerate them “for their own good.”

Okay, all you education “advocates,” consider this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2016/02/25/education-shmedumacation-a-poem-by-two-high-school-juniors-who-got-an-a/

Education Shmedumacation

By Huong Le and Lilly Penick

I’m so glad I live in America where I have a “free” education,

Although I’m sure that’s all I have to be grateful for when it comes to this system.

As a topic majorly discussed by the politicians of our great country, the land of the free,

Education is clearly a priority in our nation and nations elsewhere as well.

And because this subject is valued so highly by our society

I stand here today to tell you how much it sucks.

Oh, excuse my language, I mean, how much it displeases me to my core, my common core.

Now I ain’t saying we shouldn’t be edumacated

But I’m not sure I want to be educated under these corrupt conditions.

Somewhere between coming out of my mother’s birth canal and learning how to ride a bike,

My life was signed away to thirteen years of required education.

Required education full of standardized testing, useless lessons, and careless staff.

You would think that shoving information in your brain for

Nine months a year for thirteen years straight would be pretty useful —

I still don’t know how to do my taxes or how insurance works.

But that doesn’t really matter, right?

At least I know that the product rule for derivatives is vu’ + uv’

And that the Enlightenment philosopher Jean Jacques Rousseau was a gigolo.

Despite learning these obscure facts,

Teachers still have limited freedom to teach in their desired manner.

They are bound by quarterly evaluations and Marzano’s models,

A process full of half-assed rubrics and mandatory lesson goals.

“What are you learning in class today?”

Oh, you know, just the basics of SS.912.A.2.1.

As the school year progresses, my motivation eerily resembles a negative exponential function.

I have been self-diagnosed with early onset senioritis with a cure that has yet to be discovered.

Administrators are too busy cracking down on tank tops and spaghetti straps to care,

Pursuit for academic success is going ignored everyday, but that doesn’t really matter, right?

I have watched substitute teachers come and go each year I’m in school

And I have yet to come across one that truly cherishes my education.

Temporary or not, I at least deserve a substitute that has had a proper background check.

Substance abuse, racial discrimination, you name it. I’ve had a sub that’s done it.

As students, we are told relentlessly how we should learn to take an initiative

And yet it seems near impossible to get any project approved,

Because apparently it’s too hard to hand us all the papers we need at once.

Yes, please, give me each paper of this 107-page document individually for the next two weeks.

Oh, I was supposed to sign on these pages I’ve never received?

Sorry, the bureaucracy of this school seems primarily communistic.

This barbaric system doesn’t just stop at the high school level.

You want to apply to a college you have a 4% chance of getting into?

That’ll be four meals, a diamond encrusted sock, and an eye.

And if someone accidentally hit the accept button on your application,

Tuition will cost you your dead grandmother’s far left gold molar.

It is now 12:52, the night before this poem is due,

And I have the urge to stab myself in the pancreas with a wooden spork.

My brain has been effectively pulverized into something reminiscent of mashed potatoes.

Mashed potatoes flaked with pleiotropic qualities, integrals, and a really hot John D. Rockefeller.

Hot-because-it’s-now-1AM not hot-because-I-want-to-bear-your-children.

So as you can see, there are just a few teeny weeny, itsy bitsy, miniscule flaws

Regarding the current state of our public educational system.

But because I am just a marionette in this terribly organized, mediocre, backyard carnival show,

What I say about the system that’s supposed to work for me doesn’t really matter, right?

Lawrence Reed, quoting Tocqueville,
“Even despots accept the excellence of liberty. The simple truth is that they wish to keep it for themselves and promote the idea that no one else is at all worthy of it. Thus, our opinion of liberty does not reveal our differences but the relative value which we place on our fellow man. We can state with conviction, therefore, that a man’s support for absolute government is in direct proportion to the contempt he feels for his country” — Alexis de Tocqueville, 1858.
Don’t you agree?
 
“Thus, our opinion of liberty does not reveal our differences but the relative value which we place on our fellow man.”
 
Isn’t it that simple?
 
“We can state with conviction, therefore, that a man’s support for absolute government is in direct proportion to the contempt he feels for his country””
 
Yes! The less willing you are to let your fellow citizens alone, the more you contempt you have for them and the more you distrust the people of your country.
 
Like Thomas Jefferson said, “I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than those attending too small a degree of it.”
 
Forcing people by forcing the armed police to force them leads to all kinds of troubles, all kinds of harm. While it is inconvenient to trust people, since they will so often fail, it does show our love, respect, and patriotism.
 
It is worth it.
Liberty is worth the effort. Every person is worth it, every single person on earth, born or unborn, native or immigrant, legal or otherwise, wise or foolish, healthy or infirm, rich or poor, talented or plain, gifted or needy, yes, every single person!
Mr. Reed ends his statement with the following:
See Jim Powell’s essay, “Alexis de Tocqueville: How People Gain Liberty and Lose It” here: http://bit.ly/211zP8I. Tocqueville warned that a welfare state could seduce people into servitude.

Let’s make sure we don’t repeat the obvious mistakes.

http://www.history.com/news/little-ice-age-big-consequences

The Little Ice Age was bad. Similar global cooling now will be harsh. Hopefully earth won’t significantly cool, but we have more reason to prepare for cooling than warming. A little warming is a good thing. A little cooling will cause famine and worse.

From the article, and this is my point:

Witch Hunts
In 1484, Pope Innocent VIII recognized the existence of witches and echoed popular sentiment by blaming them for the cold temperatures and resulting misfortunes plaguing Europe. His declaration ushered in an era of hysteria, accusations and executions on both sides of the Atlantic. Historians have shown that surges in European witch trials coincided with some of the Little Ice Age’s most bitter phases during the 16th and 17th centuries.

I consider it exaggerated to blame that pope for ushering in an era of hysteria, but the official papal declaration did lend credence to the noble-cause-corruption evident. Of course, the Pope held responsibility for the Inquisition in his day.

I doubt I’m the only one with misgivings regarding the Pope’s recent stances on environmentalism, socialism, and a few other ominous topics, especially his assertion implying Trump cannot be Christian (and by association and extension, all who support wall-building).

Similarities between now and more than a few grave moments in history are striking.

Let us not lose sight of what is right. Do not repeat the mistakes of the past. Too many lives were sacrificed in learning those lessons and overcoming the mistakes.

No one can claim history has not warned us.


There is no room for lethargy in science. There is no excuse for giving up in aggravation. That is the nature of it.

Painstaking effort against relentless aggravation and disappointment of expectations is the lot of all truthseekers.

Watts Up With That?

One of the graphs we have had on the WUWT sea ice page has been the DMI graph showing 30% concentration of sea ice extent, there has been a widening divergence between the two Arctic sea ice extent graphs produced by DMI.  WUWT reader David Burton writes:

Until a few days ago, Denmark’s Meteorologiske Institut (DMI) graphed Arctic sea ice extent two ways. They had a graph comparing the current year to the preceding ten years’ “30%+ concentration” Arctic sea ice extent, with coastal zones masked out, by graphing each year in a different color on the same horizontal timescale.

DMI-30percent-sea-ice

They also had (and still have) a graph comparing the current year to the preceding four years’ “15%+ concentration” Arctic sea ice extent (and I don’t know how they handle coastal zones in that version). In both graphs, the current (partial) year is plotted with a heavier black line.

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And it hasn’t stopped. I Googled “global per capita gdp” and got ~$13k as of 2013. http://www.indexmundi.com/world/gdp_per_capita_(ppp).html, etc.

Before fossil fuels, economic security was the sole provenance of the nominal 1%-ers (most of that was attained via slaveholding–thank fossil fuels for [mostly] ending slavery too). The vast majority of people throughout history up to the industrial revolution lived in honest fear of not surviving another year, facing the very real possibility, at moderate likelihood, of succumbing to exposure or deprivation of food. We went from around $100 per person per year for centuries to now well over $10,000 per person per year, increasing every year. We went from nearly all living in poverty to only one-seventh.

We have a lot of work to do to bring the poverty level to nearly none, and then there will still be some. The only known possibility is more fossil fuels, with eventual replacement by nuclear [fission] power generation.

Embrace fossil fuels, especially for the developing parts of the world, or embrace death, disease, and deprivation.

The choice boils down to killing people today or pretending to save people in ages to come.

Watts Up With That?

People send me stuff.

I got an email today that contained a blog post about another subject unrelated to climate or energy, but it had this graph in it that caught my eye:

global-gdp-since-steam-engine

The invention of the steam engine (which used coal and wood at first, with oil and natural gas coming later) seems to be the catalyst for change in the human race. Now that’s a hockey stick we can all get behind!

Wikipedia has a similar graph:

World_GDP_per_capita_1500_to_2003

Data extracted from Angus Maddison’s “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2003 AD

And then there’s this one, going all the way back to 500 B.C.

Ballor-Global-GDP-since500BC

Source: Victor V. Claar, “The Urgency of Poverty and the Hope of Genuinely Fair Trade,” Journal of Markets & Morality 16, no. 1 (Spring 2013): 274. GDP figures from J. Bradford DeLong, “Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C.—Present.”

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Having high school be about students, about kids, would go a long way in improving. We need less standardized testing. It isn’t about comparing. It is about helping young people grow to adults.

Real Learning CT

Sometimes changing one thing in a culture changes everything. That is what more than 50 college and university deans of admission, college presidents, and university chancellors, in addition to representatives from public and independent schools, are hoping for. Their one thing to change is the process of applying to college.

Educators on both the high school and college side of the college admissions process have been looking with dismay at what adolescence has become for many students due to the pressure to succeed in high school in order to gain college acceptance. They are concerned that those pressures have been harmful to the students’ well being and have influenced them to be overly self-absorbed. That group, with representatives from the most prestigious colleges and universities, recently released a report through the Harvard School of Education, entitled Turning the Tide, which details proposed changes in the college application process. All…

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Remember to Remember
Shad
Featuring: Lights
Produced By: Mike Tompkins
Album: Flying Colours

REMEMBER TO REMEMBER LYRICS
[Verse 1]
Yeah, I forget so often, God, no wonder I feel lost
When I forget where I came from or how I got past
Now we ain’t young, can’t play dumb, the fun and games is done
Damn man, it’s a strange one
Reverend what you say, run, walk this way
By the light of the same sun, that’s in the sky where the rain’s from
But the clouds make it hard to see him
He’s in my brother I discovered that it’s not that hard to be him
I just lose him in the P.M., thinking if I had a B.M
I could hang with Mona Lisas like a piece in a museum
Uh, human beings
Deep inside we decide if we free men

[Hook 1: Shad & {​Lights}​]
Remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Remember to remember
{​I mean it now}​
Just remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Remember to remember
{​I see you now}​

[Verse 2]
You may have to forgive him forever
Everyday they say life can make you bitter or better
I say “Hey, sacred or not it’s all that we got”
Love is what it is, or maybe not what you thought
Woke up one morning started talking to pops
He said “There’s lots that you’ve learned but a lot you forgot
More often than not you don’t got to be taught
Just remember to remember how you got to the spot, that’s hot”
I’m happy and healthy and dreaming and dying
I’m loving and lonely and tired of trying
I’m fall and faded and failing with flying
Colours fumbling forward facing sky
My aim’s to entertain and inspire
Walk through the rain and the fire, pay bills keep sane, and retire
From the game with a name that’s admired
Seeing the stars and aiming higher

[Hook 2: Shad & {​Lights}​
Remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Remember to remember
{​I feel it now}​
Remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Remember to remember
{​I need it now}​
Remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Yeah
{​I feel it now}​
Remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Break it down like this…
{​I mean it now}​

[Verse 3]
Now I ain’t ever really been one for image
Ain’t trying to fool the public with some stunts and gimmicks
Guys gravitate to blunts and Guinness to get the courage to fight the urge
In ’em, not to succumb to timidness
And this world is fully overrun with mimics
With a penchant for overexposing guns and women
Few deals, funds is limited, folks front to get in the game
That ain’t kind, everyone’s a critic
But this ain’t a race to win, it’s a run to finish
And as long as I got breath in my lungs to end it
The enemy isn’t the flesh and blood thugs and cynics
We fighting fear and pride for the love within us

[Hook 2]
Remember
{​In the now}​
Remember to remember
{​I see you now}​
Remember to remember
{​In the now}​
Remember to remember
{​I feel it now}​
Remember to Remember
{​I feel it now}​
Remember to Remember
{​I feel it now}​
Remember to Remember
{​I feel it now}​
Remember to Remember

[Instrumental section—a cappella samples]

[Verse 4]
Break it down, the poor struggle with needs
The rich struggle with greed, this camel struggle to squeeze
Through the eye of a needle, some eyes struggle to see
But we all struggle for freedom
Instead of freeing each other by letting ourselves be
Yeah, and it never ends
We only feel better when we feel like we’re better than
Clever men and our violence
Silence is when we shoot from the lip too quiet
Then we talk nonviolence and stay silent when it suits
Really, it’s all violence at the root
The same James Wilks in the booth, but tyrants aren’t tyrants in the group
Who started the shooting? Who knows?
We were all just born inside of this truth
Taught to shoot as youth, taught as just humans being human
But the truth is the truth is bulletproof

[Outro]
Remember to remember

http://genius.com/Shad-remember-to-remember-lyrics

“The practical reason for freedom is that freedom seems to be the only condition under which any kind of substantial moral fiber can be developed. We have tried law, compulsion and authoritarianism of various kinds, and the result is nothing to be proud of” — Albert Jay Nock, 1925.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Jay_Nock

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Albert_Jay_Nock

https://mises.org/profile/albert-jay-nock

 

Risen is a good movie.

It is getting some good reviews, but more mediocre ones.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3231054/

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/risen_2016/

This is from Rotten Tomatoes, “Risen benefits from a lighter tone than many faith-based productions, as well as a unique take on the Greatest Story Ever Told and a terrific turn from star Joseph Fiennes.”

Fair assessment.

My assessment is that this was a good movie, a well done movie, and most of all, a movie.

I suspect the mediocre reviews are based largely on the religious theme, but it isn’t a particularly religious movie. The movie depicts Christ’s resurrection, but it keeps leaving room. It tells the story a certain way, and given the telling, it plays fair. It gives a moving and impactful story.

It was my impression that nearly all the audience was affected.

It is a personal telling, and it takes the view that this story, above all others, is personal. I think it did it well.

This isn’t the biblical story, but it is obviously based on it, around it, similar to it.

Mostly, I think those responsible for the telling of this story and the movie making of it, took it seriously, and they wanted to leave each member of the audience with something. If you go in with certain expectations, you will perhaps be disappointed. If you go in to see what you can find and keep, I think you will find something you are glad to have.

If you are deeply religious, you may have to overlook some things here and there.

If you are not religious, you will probably not find cause for offense. You will probably find a story that speaks to you, at least a little. I expect it will make you think. I suspect it won’t be something that changes your mind one way or another. Things that deepen our thinking are good.

Stories like this are usually called historical fiction. With my limited history of the period, it seems some pains were taken to get it right, at least close enough to avoid distraction.

The military aspects and some of the details fit and were engaging.

Overall, it was a movie I felt was of more value than my ticket price. I felt it was worth my time. I enjoyed it, at times it moved me, and it made me think.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35607597

The Pope backtracked a bit, but he erred when he judged Donald Trump as not a Christian.

Click the link and watch the statements. Someone might make something of translation, but I think the Pope was clearly judging Trump. If he had simply said something like, “Good Christian charity focuses on building bridges, not walls…” I could have supported him. Nope. Not with this.

I supported the Pope when he refused to judge a homosexual. I agree, if you are honestly seeking God, who am I to judge?

Fundamentally, none of us can judge another person’s soul. We do not know if a person is a Christian. That is why it was wrong to judge the President. He has made a declarative statement. Actions and fruit from his life give us indications, but they do not allow us to judge.

Such judgement is exactly what Jesus forbid.

Good thing we know the Pope is human, subject to the frailties common to us all.


Absolutely.

Watts Up With That?

Last week, the science world was abuzz with the news that gravitational waves had been discovered thanks to the LIGO project and the team of international scientists that made it possible. At WUWT, I covered the story here, saying that it was a “triumph of science”. Indeed it was, and still is, and the effects of this discovery on science will ripple into the future for decades and centuries to come.

I woke in the middle of the night as I sometimes do, for no particular reason except that my brain doesn’t always cooperate with my body when it comes time to sleep, and the LIGO project was on my mind, partly due to an email I got from a fellow who wanted to tell me about a colleague in China who was talking about Gravitons and the LIGO announcement here. It got me was thinking about how…

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8Better is a little with righteousness
than great revenues with injustice.

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