Lonnie E. Schubert:

Pointman nails it.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Feeling unsettled? Try new Climate Science™, now with extra certainty!
HistoryOfSettledScience-big1[1]

Climate Science Is Not Settled

We are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy, writes leading scientist Steven E. Koonin

The idea that “Climate science is settled” runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.

My training as a computational physicist—together with a 40-year career of scientific research, advising and management in academia, government and the private sector—has afforded me an extended, up-close perspective on climate science. Detailed technical discussions during the past year with leading climate scientists have given me an even better sense of what we know, and don’t know, about…

View original 975 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

The argument the alarmists have shouted the loudest, is that global warming will affect the hurricanes. Well, the hurricanes are not as bad as they used to be. Hmm…

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Chip Knappenberger writes: Should We Credit Global Warming When Disasters Don’t Happen?

Every time there is some sort of weather disaster somewhere, someone blames it on human-caused global warming. Maybe not directly, but the implication is clear. “While we can’t link individual events to global warming, the increase of this type of event is consistent with our expectations, blah, blah…”

Most recently this came in testimony from White House Science Adviser John Holdren before the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of the U.S. House of Representatives:

In general, one cannot say with confidence that an individual extreme weather event (or weather-related event)—for example, a heat wave, drought, flood, powerful storm, or large wildfire—was caused by global climate change. Such events usually result from the convergence of multiple factors, and these kinds of events occurred with some frequency before the onset of the discernible, largely human-caused changes in global climate…

View original 588 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Documenting.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

That is the gist of a story today at CNN by Sally Kohn titled:

The imminent threat to the U.S. that gets ignored.

Of course, it is a puff piece designed to dovetail with the NYC Climate March,  they use the Statue of Liberty as an example of something imminently threatened by climate change.

CNN_landmarks-ISISh/t to CTM

She writes:

As thousands of people are expected to join the People’s Climate March this Sunday, September 21, in New York City — calling on world leaders and businesses to take serous and urgent steps to reduce global warming — the threat that climate change poses to the United States is both direct and undeniable.

The rise in mega-storms like Superstorm Sandy is already hurting coastal towns and our economy, while the rise in temperatures is causing droughts in the Great Plains and Southwest. Scientists have shown these effects will only increase.

View original 394 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Getting hundreds of people to look at an idea tends to bring out the best (and sometimes the worst). Good information. Carbon dioxide is actually good for the world. It is an essential ingredient in life. It is not a pollutant in any contrivable definition.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

WUWT readers may recall this WUWT story from 2011: The Earth’s biosphere is booming, data suggests that CO2 is the cause, part 2

Image: data from SEAWIFS showing vegetation chlorophyll and change. Source: http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/SeaWiFS/BACKGROUND/Gallery/

Image: data from SEAWIFS showing vegetation chlorophyll and change. Source: http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/SeaWiFS/BACKGROUND/Gallery/

Now there is even more evidence. From From Technische Universität München: Study highlights forest growth trends from 1870 to the present- Global change: Trees continue to grow at a faster rate

“…scientists are putting the growth acceleration down to rising temperatures and the extended growing season. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen are other factors contributing to the faster growth.”

Cynthia Schäfer and Eric Thurm, doctoral candidates at the Chair for Forest Growth and Yield, take a growth ring sample from an experimental plot tree. Cynthia Schäfer and Eric Thurm, doctoral candidates at the Chair for Forest Growth and Yield, take a growth ring sample from an experimental plot tree.
Cynthia Schäfer and Eric Thurm, doctoral candidates at the Chair for Forest Growth and Yield, take a growth ring sample from an experimental plot tree. (Photo: L. Steinacker / TUM)

17.09.2014,  Research news

Trees have been growing significantly faster since the 1960s. The typical development phases of trees and stands have barely changed, but they have…

View original 891 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Because it matters.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

ban-ki-moonThis WUWT story from two days ago:  Obama’s Lonely Climate Summit – world leaders are staying home went viral after being linked to by the Drudge report, earning WUWT it’s best performing day ever with 345,393 views.

WUWT_best_day_wordpressdataIt seems to have evoked a response.

Eric Worrall writes:

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon today responded, to reports that a number of key world leaders would not be attending the upcoming climate summit in New York.

According to Ban,

“…even though the leaders from India, China and Russia will not be able to participate in the meeting, there are “other means of communications, ways and means of having their leadership demonstrated in the United Nations.”

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/really-wanted-modi-to-attend-un-climate-change-summit-un-chief-ban-ki-moon/articleshow/42703914.cms

I suggest, Mr Moon, that you and President Obama are currently experiencing a sample of that “other means of communication” you mentioned.

View original

Lonnie E. Schubert:

NCSE is a joke. Kudos to Texas.
BTW, is this current? http://glencoe.mheducation.com/sites/0078745292/index.html
The book is copyrighted 2008. There does seem to be a 2012 edition.
I am certain the text book sellers like to keep Texas happy, as Texas is their biggest customer.
Again, NCSE is simply an advocacy group. They are dangerous in my opinion.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

mcGraw-hill-world=geo-bookThe National Center for Science Education (NCSE) has published a critique which expresses deep concerns about the latest McGraw Hill Education, World Cultures & Geography [Teacher Version] (Grade 6) school textbook. According to the critique;

“This book has a deeply concerning section comparing the Heartland Institute with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in relation to climate change.

This misleads students as to good sources of information, pitting an ideologically driven advocacy group (Heartland Institute) that receives funding from Big Tobacco and polluters against a Nobel Peace PrizeNwinning scientific body (IPCC).

The IPCC reports utilize hundreds of scientific experts and reviewers, as well as thousands of peerNreviewed articles. The Heartland Institute has no such expertise nor do they utilize the depth of research available in this area. Independent of the content area, this is a completely inappropriate presentation of the information or comparison of sources.

Specifically; “This entire section…

View original 142 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Anthony uses the “Claim” in titles when he is skeptical of what he is reporting on. I call the article hogwash. The American Geophysical Union has no credibility in my view.

The point about El Nino is significant. El Nino matters. El Nino is an emergent, chaotic process driven by the sun. Anyone that thinks even 10 billion people can affect the Pacific Ocean has severe ego problems.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

From the American Geophysical Union | WASHINGTON, D.C. – Peak tornado activity in the central and southern Great Plains of the United States is occurring up to two weeks earlier than it did half a century ago, according to a new study whose findings could help states in “Tornado Alley” better prepare for these violent storms.

Tornado records from Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas – an area of high tornado activity dubbed “Tornado Alley” — show that peak tornado activity is starting and ending earlier than it did 60 years ago.tornado_alley

A supercell storm, known to produce violent tornadoes, forms in Courtney, Oklahoma in April 2014. A new study shows that peak tornado activity is occurring nearly two weeks earlier in Oklahoma, Kansas, and northern Texas, according to a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters. Credit: Kelly DeLay/Flickr

Peak tornado activity, which occurs in the region from early May to early July, has moved an average of seven days earlier in the year over the past six decades. The study’s authors observed the shift in tornado activity for all categories of tornadoes that occurred in the region from 1954 to 2009.

The research team published its…

View original 748 more words

Senator Josh Brecheen comments regarding NCLB waiver and federally mandated teacher evaluation based on student test results here: http://www.durantdemocrat.com/news/opinion/50629902/Brecheen-discusses-No-Child-Left-Behind-Waiver-and-TLE

“Teachers must be made aware that losing the NCLB waiver impacts the Teacher Leader Effectiveness and Evaluation (TLE) system to their benefit.

“The loss of the NCLB waiver gives Oklahoma the opportunity to not be forced to implement the quantitative side of TLE (where student test scores are the metric in evaluating teachers), as currently being pushed by the Obama Administration/U.S. Department of Education.”

Our State School Board needs to get it in gear and quit shirking their duties. We parents need to hold them and the Governor (and the new Superintendent once elected) accountable.

Enough said here:

http://www.politichicks.tv/2014/09/common-core-oklahoma/

The elites believe they know best. They consider us clueless parents. We are just in the way of them accomplishing their agenda of turning our civilization into a Borg hive collective, with them as the queen.

Don’t let it happen. Resistance is not futile.

Take responsibility for your kids no matter what your educational choices are. (Be sure you think through your choices. Stay on top of it.)

Lonnie E. Schubert:

First, EPA has outlived its usefulness. Second it is outright dangerous. Adding abuses like this, surely all can agree to eliminate the EPA. Most of its function simply need to be left to the states. A small, thoroughly chartered agency could hold the national role under close legislative oversight, not executive. Eliminate the EPA.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

NEW REPORT: FOIA’d Emails show outside ‘green’ lobby groups staffed up, collude with Obama EPA, calling rules’ legality into question

For Immediate Release:September 15, 2014 |

Obama’s EPA in collusion with “green” lobby groups — Report details the conflicts of interest, “unalterably closed minds”, internal activism and influence of outside interest groups on the Obama Administration EPA. Documents raise questions re EPA rules legality

Washington, D.C. – The Energy & Environment Legal Institute (E&E Legal) released a report today revealing and piecing together dozens of emails obtained under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), which lay out in detail EPA’s collusion with senior activists within environmentalist pressure groups, and proving the real thinking about the intent behind and impact of EPA’s “climate” regulations.

Far from the required recusing to avoid the appearance of a conflict, EPA filled its senior political ranks with green pressure group activists, continuing their life’s work…

View original 1,052 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Noteworthy.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest opinion by Dr. Tim Ball |

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper proudly announced discovery of one of Captain John Franklin’s ships, either the Erebus or Terror. Identification, of which ship will be relatively easy, based on the known dimensions of the vessels (Figure 1).

clip_image002

Figure 1: Erebus and Terror; sketch in the London Illustrated News May 24, 1845

Source: Illustrated London News/Getty Images

The discovery is important, but inevitable, given the known approximate position where they sank. It is surprising both ships were not discovered because they were locked in the ice close to each other. Good condition of the ship is not surprising, although ice damage is evident. Once on the bottom, where the water is constantly very cold, they would not suffer much organic damage. They are also below the depth where surface ice could cause damage, as it did with Jens Munk’s ship sunk in Churchill…

View original 2,306 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Data, not models.

Scotese has had this, http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm, posted without change since 2002. He had it the same before, but added the light-gray line at the top (recent time). I suppose he was pressured by the alarmists.

Anyway, one of my favorites quotes:
“During the last 2 billion years the Earth’s climate has alternated between a frigid “Ice House”, like today’s world, and a steaming “Hot House”, like the world of the dinosaurs.”
Dr. C. R. Scotese

Cold kills. Warmer is better. (Ask the dinosaurs.)

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Holocene_Temperature_Variations_Rev[1]
From The Hockey Schtick
Is there any limit to the extremes some climate propagandists will go?The Climategate team removed the warm 1940’s “blip”, erased the Medieval Warm PeriodHid the Decline, and tortured temperature & sea level data until it confessed, but a paper published Monday in Earth’s Future could take the cake by suggesting removal of “the Holocene Epoch from the geologic timescale” and replacing it with the fictitious, scary-sounding “geologic” timescale “The Anthropocene.”

Excerpt from “Hello Anthropocene, Goodbye Holocene”:

: “As the official timescale keepers deliberate the introduction of the Anthropocene and a Holocene-Anthropocene boundary (Anthropocene Working Group of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy; Zalasiewicz, J., M. et al., 2010; http://goo.gl/wIm6X0 ), they should consider the alternative: Remove the Holocene Epoch from the geologic timescale. Whereas any timescale change is a contentious issue, let alone changes to an existing epoch, modern human society’s interactions with its planet and…

View original 511 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

I am of the opinion that persuasion is an illusion. Once people make up their minds, they won’t change for reason, data, or arguments (rhetoric). The opinion is fixed until pain forces change. [Instead of pain, an incentive and opportunity might arise that provides cause for change.]

As Weather Channel continues to fail, the pain of monetary loss will start forcing the change. Enough pain like this, and the media just might swing round and either drop this particular variety of alarmism, or it might even start deriding it. They will likely do whatever helps ratings.

Regardless, I don’t expect to ever hear apologies about global warming alarmism, but I do expect to quit hearing the hype. It will run its course. The global warming alarm will continue to be sounded by the true believers. It may never stop. Think of the recent Harold Camping. There are still believers in his failed alarmism, even though he completely disavowed, stating that he was wrong. He reportedly asserted that to predict such dates must ultimately be sinful. Yet people believe. Global warming alarmism is with us until Manhattan Island is under ice sheets again.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Bloomberg reports that ratings are down 20% over three years, and with the sort of programming they continue with, such as this lame “forecast from 2050″ with Sam Champion and go-to storm chaser guy Jim Cantore, where in a CGI based forecast, he laments rising sea levels while standing in fake water.

JimCantoreHere is the fake forecast video, sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (part of the U.N.):

It doesn’t look like their ratings and viewers will rebound any time soon, much like global warming itself, which is now in an extended pause that may last as long as 30 years.

Bloomberg reports:

DirecTV dropped the Weather Channel for about three months earlier this year after failing to come to an agreement about how much the network should be paid in affiliate fees. The Weather Channel agreed to cut back on its reality programming to include more local weather…

View original 187 more words

Lonnie E. Schubert:

Considering history, and eyeballing the trends, one should reasonably conclude we recently peaked on the upswing, and now we will trend down in temperature for a few decades. While I think it is Pollyanna to suppose a full glacial advance isn’t coming, there is no telling when. I’ve thought for years that the next full glaciation will start soon, but soon here means decades to centuries. We just don’t know enough to predict. Regardless, the fact is that the world will be a much worse place if it cools as much as some of the experts suggest. Certainly, these folks are in the minority, but simply looking at the data shows that cooling is likely. A little cooling will hurt, a little more will be bad, as in millions, even billions of us suffering from starvation and other privations.

It seems to me that instead of billions spent on global warming abatement, we could sensibly prepare for significant alterations in climate and be much better prepared. We need to prepare for dealing with cooling that causes crop failures, and we need to be ready for more drought (a feature of cooling periods), and we need to be ready for more rain and warming too, since the kinds of things that make sense for disruptions work no matter what causes the disruption. Heck, that rock is out there. If it falls on us, such preparations will help deal with the havoc it causes.

Long term warming periods used to be called optimums. We need to admit and internalize the fact that cold kills; warmer is better.

Preparing for cooling makes sense. If it stays warm, we should stay appreciative of the fact.

UPDATE: Adding a comment from WUWT comment-section from the esteemed Professor Brown of Duke U.

  • Dearest Joachim,

    Sadly, your clock has a pendulum that is made up of many pieces of unequal length — a much, much more complex version of this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_pendulum

    and is swinging through a jar of liquid at a speed that — in parts of its swing and for part of its cycle — passes the threshold for turbulence. Also, the spring that drives it isn’t a linear spring — it gets stronger and weaker as the clock ticks following a most irregular pattern. Finally, the swing is large enough that the ends of the pendulum can easily swing through one or more full rotations around the joints connecting the pieces.

    Consequently, the clock is a chaotic, nonlinear clock and you could be god and still unable to compute the solution to its intrinsic mechanism out into the indefinite future. How far out you can compute it and remain reasonably close is entirely dependent on chance, because you cannot even accurate measure the state of the clock and all of the components of the pendulum and have to approximate it as a rigid rod, which indeed sometimes it resembles for many cycles in a row.

    Until it doesn’t.

    During times of apparent order, it is easy to be lulled into thinking that you understand its mechanism and that it can be safely predicted into the future. And then — because it isn’t just a highly multivariate nonlinear oscillator, but is a strongly driven open system — it turns out that many of its “pendulum” pieces are self-organized phenomena and are not themselves permanent. There you are, understanding it (you think) and they suddenly rearrange themselves in length and mass and the entire clock starts to follow a completely different(but still chaotic) trajectory.

    rgb

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

HadCRUT_cooling from 2001

Eric Worrall writes:

Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.

According to Bob Carter;

Heading for ice age

“GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s capitulation to scientific criticism that it should publish an accounting of the corrections it makes to temperature records (“Bureau warms to transparency over adjusted records”, 12/9). Corrections which, furthermore, act to reinforce the bureau’s dedication to a prognosis of future dangerous global warming, by turning cooling temperature trends into warming ones — a practice also known to occur in the US, Britain and New Zealand.

Meanwhile, we have a report by Sue Neales that the size of our grain harvest remains in doubt following severe frosts in southern NSW killing large areas of early…

View original 294 more words

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 362 other followers

%d bloggers like this: