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For those worried increases in earthquakes, note the distribution. We are just in a uptick in the clustering nature of seismic activity.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I keep reading how sunspots are supposed to affect volcanoes. In the comments to my last post, Tides, Earthquakes, and Volcanoes, someone approvingly quoted a volcano researcher who had looked at eleven eruptions of a particular type and stated:

…. Nine of the 11 events occurred during the solar inactive phase (sunspot numbers < 40), despite the fact that exactly half of the 306 years during the period of interest fell in the solar inactive phase ….

Now that sounds very impressive, nine out of eleven eruptions came at an inactive solar phase, it must be a real phenomenon … or not.

The problem with this claim is the tiny number of data points, only eleven of them. In fact, nine events out of eleven is within the 95% confidence interval for a fifty/fifty coin flip. This means that despite sounding quite large, his finding…

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